Bitcoin: cutting through the bullshit

Bitcoin is complex

Bitcoin can’t do payments

Bitcoin has leaders

  • Miners who generate blocks and process transactions
  • Celebrity business figures like Michael Saylor and Elon Musk
  • Thought leaders on Twitter and other social media platforms

Bitcoin’s price is programmed

  • Saying the standard deviation is $40,000 wide and asserting it’s impressive that Bitcoin stays within that range (with a straight face) is puzzling. Especially considering Bitcoin itself right now is priced below $40,000 — so the error band is literally as wide as the entire market cap of the coin.
  • Where does the $100m figure come from here? If you pick an arbitrarily high number, you will get an arbitrarily low probability. Bitcoin is unlikely to hit $100m even in the most optimistic case.
  • Why pick “days in a row”? Why not pick “hours in a row”, or “minutes in a row”? Again — pick an arbitrarily small time unit, and you will get an arbitrarily low probability using this methodology.
  • Bitcoin’s price one day is (in part) a function of Bitcoin’s price the previous day. Treating the price each day as being statistically independent to determine a probability is fundamentally wrong.

Bitcoin is a cult

Bitcoin uses too much energy

Bitcoin requires maximalism

Bitcoin isn’t real

Fight the bullshit!

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